Higher Education Enrollment Trends

There is a false narrative out there that American families are abandoning higher education in response to our failure to deliver value. According to the narrative, social mobility and college degree attainment is a myth. Not so fast. There is plenty of room for critique and for improvement in our ability to bring value to those trusting us with their aspirations, dreams, and their investments. As we head into college decision making season, here are the data. * FAFSA submissions for the high school Class of 2025 are running ahead of the previous year. * The Common App has reported a 4% increase in applications year over year, driven by first-generation and lower-income students. * Despite previous FAFSA completion declines, 18-year-old enrollment increased by 3.4%, and overall freshman enrollment saw a 5.5% rise. * College completion rates are at their highest levels, indicating improved institutional effectiveness. With a significant percentage of future jobs requiring postsecondary education, maintaining and increasing access to higher education is crucial. At Arizona State University we are committed to access and student success. Kent Hopkins Christian Osmena Nancy Gonzales Philip Regier Casey Evans Matt Lopez

The numbers keep rising—of applications to colleges, that is, according to the last data from The Common App.   What’s happening: Total application volume through December 1 to the 834 institutions that were part of the Common App last year have risen 12% so far over the 2022-23 cycle. 📮 Some 4.5 million applications were submitted through the Common App through December 1. Meanwhile, individual applicants have only increased by 8%. 📇 So that means students are applying to more schools, with the average number of applications filed per student up 3%. Yes, but: As you can see in the first chart below, growth in applications since 2019–20 was slowest for the most-selective institutions (those with admit rates below 25%) and highest for less-selective institutions (with admit rates at or above 75%). Driving the news: In the wake of last summer’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down affirmative action in admissions, many colleges have either held off on transferring data from the race/ethnicity box applicants check on the Common App or colleges hide it from those reading the applications. 📈 Still, the Common App is collecting that information, and in its December report said applicants identifying as an underrepresented minority race/ethnicity increased by 15%, driven largely by growth in applicants identifying as Black or African American (15%) and Latino (15%). 🏫 While the fact that the pool is larger is good news for colleges worried about a drop off in minority enrollment this year, it’s unclear if those applications are going to the most selective colleges, where the use of race in the past allowed colleges with limited seats to diversify their classes. By the numbers: To submit or not submit a test score to test-optional schools is perhaps the No. 1 question I get from applicant families these days. ✏️ So far this year, slightly more students have chosen not to report than to report for the first time since there was a major disruption in test-taking during the 2020-21 application cycle (see second chart below). “Growth is meaningfully faster over the past year for students not reporting test scores, indicating that this dynamic may accelerate going forward,” the Common App reported. Bottom line: Reading various Facebook groups and online forums over the weekend, after many ED/EA decisions were released, frustration continues to build among students and their families about a process that is overwhelmed with applications—even at what were long considered less-selective public flagship institutions.   💣 To me, college admissions remains a ticking time bomb where one side needs to change tactics—either colleges stop using all the enrollment management strategies they employ (like deferring most of their EA pool to protect yield) or students apply to fewer colleges. Who will blink first? Feel free to give me your thoughts below. #collegeadmissions #testoptional #classof2024 #parentingteens #highered

Can we stop calling them “nontraditional” already? More than 40% of college students are over 22. Nearly 70% are working while enrolled. One in five has kids. Many are first-gen, neurodivergent, multilingual. This isn’t a special population. IT IS THE POPULATION! And yet, too many colleges are still built for an 18-year-old who lives on campus, has no job, and no caregiving duties. That version of college is a fading snapshot. Today’s students are balancing work, family, and ambition. They’re not asking for shortcuts. They’re asking for systems that make sense. Affordable. Flexible. Real-world relevant. It’s time to retire the “nontraditional” label. These students are higher ed. And the future depends on serving them better. Read more from Forbes:

𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 “𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐃𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐦” 𝐋𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐭𝐬 𝐒𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐒𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬?🎓 For decades, the U.S. has been the ultimate higher-education destination for ambitious Indian students. But recent data points to a sharp shift. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration, Indian student intake in August 2025 stood at 41,540 arrivals, a 44% decline compared to the same month last year. The drop is not isolated. F-1 visa arrivals overall fell nearly 30% in July, including a 50% decline among Indian students and 26% among Chinese students, the two largest international groups in U.S. universities. Why this Decline? 📌 Policy caps on international admissions Reports suggest a new U.S. government directive asking universities to limit total international enrolment to 15%, with no more than 5% from a single country. Such limits disproportionately affect Indian students, who form one of the largest cohorts. 📌Uncertainty in the tech industry Most students go to the U.S. to study Computer Science, but with the tech industry struggling with layoffs and a general downturn, an expensive CS education might seem less attractive. 📌Immigration policy headwinds The new H-1B visa restrictions announced recently have introduced fresh uncertainty. For many, the value of a U.S. degree is tied directly to post-study work opportunities and when that pathway narrows, so does interest. A Shifting Global Landscape🌍 The implications go beyond student choices.... U.S. universities risk losing billions in tuition revenue, as international students often subsidize research and academic programs. Public funding shortfalls may further strain institutions already under pressure. Competing destinations Europe, Canada, and Australia stand to gain, offering more predictable education-to-employment pipelines and clearer visa pathways. India, along with China and South Korea, has long been among the top three contributors to international enrolments in the U.S. If this downward trend continues, it could reshape global student mobility in the years ahead. 💭 The Big Question Will America’s academic prestige and research ecosystem continue to outweigh these challenges or are we witnessing a real shift in where global talent chooses to build its future? Linkedin News

We at MPOWER Financing have just released a comprehensive report on Canadian study permit approval rates for students from around the world across different levels of education. This report, which analyzes data from Immigration, Refugees, Citizenship Canada (IRCC). Of particular and worrying note, African students experience lower study permit acceptance rates relative to our global peers #africa #canada #studyabroad #studypermits #internationaleducation Our report has some key findings which include: - African students face consistently lower study permit approval rates when compared with their global peers (27% for African students versus 74% for students from other nations on average over the six-year period from 2018-2023). Francophone African students, in particular, are disproportionately affected with approval rates lagging behind those from non-Francophone regions (22% versus 29%). - The 2020 pandemic resulted in sharply reduced approval rates for all students, both African and non-African. A post-2020 recovery reveals the pace of improvement remains uneven across different African regions. - Lower approval rates for African students represent a significant missed opportunity for students and Canadian academic institutions. From 2018-2023, over 46,000 African postgraduate students were sidelined due to study permit approval processes that are seemingly stacked against them You can read more here: https://lnkd.in/dHYszx6S Sasha Ramani Madhushri Verma Dr. Fanta Aw Morrison Shafroth

Canada’s International Student Diversity is at Risk I’ve closely followed Immigration Minister Marc Miller’s recent call for Canadian institutions to diversify international student recruitment beyond India, as highlighted in his comments to The PIE. While I share the vision for a more diverse student body, I’m deeply concerned—and yes, frustrated—by the consequences of recent policy changes that have significantly undermined this goal. In 2024, Canada issued 394,430 student visas, down from 600,625 in 2023—a 34% decline, according to our latest Data Dive analysis. This drastic reduction, coupled with tightened study permit limits and the removal of spouse work visas, has disproportionately impacted emerging markets like Nigeria, Nepal, Brazil and the Philippines (among many others), where approvals fell by 44%, 56%, 45% and 50%, respectively. All falling more than the global average of 34%. These markets, just beginning to engage with Canada, are now facing a discouraging narrative. Here’s why these changes are hitting hard, especially for emerging markets, and what we must do to turn things around: - Spouse Work Visa Elimination: The decision to eliminate spouse work visas has been the single biggest blow for interest from emerging regions. For families considering Canada, this policy erodes financial stability and long-term planning. - Study Permit Caps Driving Homogeneity: The introduction of study permit limits has forced institutions to prioritize countries with historically high visa approval rates—often India and China—to maximize their PAL quotas. This has the potential to reverse years of diversification efforts. - Negative Commentary’s: The changed policy framework has created a perception of a Canada not being a welcoming destination. This commentary impacts emerging destinations even more than India and China. I have long treated diversity as a cornerstone of success—not just morally, but as a strategic business imperative. Canadian higher education institutions don’t need lectures on why diversity matters in our classrooms; we live it every day. Diverse student bodies drive innovation, enrich cultural exchange, and strengthen our global reputation. To rebuild and sustain diversity, we must act decisively: - Fix the System First: Address systemic processing issues - Double Down on Diverse Recruitment: It isn't easy but institutions that invest in this time of uncertainty will reap benefits in the long term. - Reassess Policy Impacts: Unlikely to happen, but we should revisit policies like the spouse work visa removal Student Direct #StudyinCanada #InternationalEducation #IRCC

Canadian study permit approval rates for international students climbed 10 percentage points year-over-year in early 2026. 🇨🇦 The latest data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) reveals a shifting landscape. While overall application volumes have softened, the likelihood of a student securing their visa has actually improved. To help your team understand the trends affecting enrollment and recruitment strategies, we analyzed the early 2026 data. Key findings include: 🔷 IRCC approved about 14,000 new post-secondary study permits in the first four months of 2026, 22% fewer than they did over the same period in 2025. 🔷 Visa approval rates rose across every program level, led by university-level postgraduate programs at 49% and undergraduate programs at 44% 🔷 Study permit extensions continue to receive the majority of approvals, accounting for 77% of the total volume For teams advising future students the improving approval rate should inspire more confidence compared to a year ago. Understanding these shifts helps institutions and counsellors better align applicant profiles with program demand, while setting students up for visa success. Our full analysis is linked in the first comment.👇

Last week the U.S. House in the dead of the night passed a budget reconciliation bill that would take away health care from millions of Americans to provide tax cuts to the wealthy. The main tool? #Medicaid churn Churn happens when people fall off Medicaid, then re-enroll a few months later. Most of the time, it’s not because they’re ineligible. It’s because of missed forms, confusing notices, or outdated contact info. And it costs money & health A 2015 analysis estimated that Medicaid churn increases administrative expenses by as much as $400-600 per person. The health impacts are even worse Studies have shown that adults with diabetes who experience churn have higher emergency department use, more hospitalizations, & higher costs per month than those with more continuous coverage . Churn has also been linked to delays in cancer treatment, disrupted prescriptions for chronic conditions, & worse prenatal care—putting pregnant people and babies at risk. And now, proposals advancing in Congress want to make this worse—by requiring Medicaid eligibility checks every six months. The truth is: more frequent checks mean more people losing coverage unnecessarily. More churn. More costs. Worse outcomes. Policies like these ignore the reality of income volatility—especially for Black, Indigenous, & Latinx households. Workers in jobs with variable hours, irregular schedules, & seasonal employment—are all at increased risk due to sharp, short-term income changes even when annual income stays the same. This means families may temporarily appear ineligible during a redetermination—even though they qualify over the course of the year. These short-term fluctuations put them at higher risk of losing coverage for reasons that have nothing to do with actual eligibility. And it’s not just bad for patients—it’s inefficient for the system. Churn forces states to process more terminations and re-enrollments. It increases call volume, delays care coordination, and creates costly administrative work for Medicaid agencies, health plans, and providers. We've seen this in Minnesota. According to a 2023 JAMA study, half of children on Medicaid in Minnesota who lost coverage were re-enrolled within one year — meaning they were likely eligible for the entire period. These gaps in care can lead to missed vaccinations, untreated illnesses, and higher costs down the road. But there’s a better way. Minnesota has made progress. We’ve invested in culturally specific outreach, simplified renewal notices, implemented 72 months continuous coverage for children from birth to age 6 and expanded 12-month continuous eligibility for children from6-21. As a result, we’ve reduced churn, seen racial disparities in disenrollment reduced or eliminated and helped families stay covered. Tell Congress: Oppose six-month Medicaid eligibility checks. Support policies that keep people covered—consistently & equitably. Because no one should lose their health care due to paperwork.

#University entry is not all about 18 year olds, and the new demand data this week tells a potentially very significant story for universities on 19 year olds. A key graph from our dataHE Times Higher Education analysis. Overall UK application rates at age 19 continue to trend down at January. Total demand here is now lower than ever previously recorded (within the current scope of the January deadline back to 2010). But unlike 18 year olds (https://lnkd.in/eEuBbnr5), demand from 19 year applicants is a mix. People who are reapplying after giving it go last year aged 18, and new ‘fresh’ demand. This is where it gets interesting. The demand component from reapplicants is down – but this is expected, success rates were up last year so there were fewer without a place (we've looked at the 'try-again' rates controlling for this and they are about where we would expect). But new ‘fresh’ demand at age 19 is up. For the second year. With both moves a clear contrast to the steady decline since 2015. These two increases are in the context of sharp falls in demand from the 18 year olds in those cohorts (2023 and 2024). So, it looks like some of the missing demand at 18 is being recycled into elevated demand at age 19. Based on these figures, perhaps a much as half of the missing demand from 2023 and 2024 has turned up as above trend demand at age 19. What does this mean for universities? The fall in 18 year old demand we are seeing is a real strategic concern for future volumes. But the evidence here of at least partial recycling into delayed demand at 19 (plus similarly strong direct to clearing last year - https://lnkd.in/efVjeB7F) does point to the merits of continuing to encourage potential students to consider university even if they give it a miss at their first January deadline. Make sure your marketing and outreach plans take this into account.

UCAS 2025 Data: What It Tells Us About Widening Participation📊 I've just caught up with the always fascinating Big UCAS Data Presentation (thanks Ellie Rowley) on January deadline applicant figures, and there are some important trends for those of us working in widening participation: 📉 Disadvantaged Students Falling Behind ➡️In #England, application rates declined in all but the most advantaged areas (IMD Q5). ➡️In contrast, #Scotland saw an increase across all socioeconomic groups, with SIMD Q1 hitting a record 21.2% participation rate. 💰 Financial Support Matters More Than Ever ➡️ Financial support is now the second most important factor in university shortlisting, rising from 4th place in 2023. ➡️The cost of living support offered by universities has jumped from 10th to 3rd place in importance, reflecting how affordability concerns are shaping student decision-making. ➡️More students are worried about their ability to enjoy student life, with higher numbers planning to cut back on extracurriculars and work part-time to afford university. 🚉 More Students Want to Stay Closer to Home ➡️"Universities that are close to home" is now the 4th most important factor in university choice, rising from 9th place in 2022. ➡️A growing number of students are choosing to commute rather than move away, with "universities I can attend but still live with my parents" also rising in importance. ➡️This shift is likely driven by cost-of-living pressures and financial insecurity, highlighting the need for better support for commuter students and local outreach efforts. 📍 Regional Disparities in Applications ➡️#London has the highest 18-year-old application rate (57.7%), compared to just 32.0% in the North East-the lowest in England. ➡️The gap between regions remains significant, with students in the South and Midlands applying at higher rates than those in the North and South West. ➡️These disparities underline the importance of targeted outreach and support for students in underrepresented regions. 📉 Mature Applicants Declining ➡️The number of mature applicants (21+) fell by 6.4%, continuing a worrying trend that impacts lifelong learning and career changers. 🛠 STEM on the Rise, Teaching & Nursing in Trouble ➡️Engineering & technology applications surged by 14%. Teaching & nursing applications are at their lowest levels since 2019 - a major concern for workforce planning. 🏛 More Students Choosing Higher-Tariff Universities ➡️Applications to high-tariff institutions rose by 4.3%, while lower-tariff providers saw a 3.1% drop. These shifts underline ongoing challenges in widening participation, socioeconomic disparities, and subject choice trends. How do we ensure higher education remains accessible and attractive to all, especially those from underrepresented backgrounds? #HigherEducation #WideningParticipation #SocialMobility #UCAS #AccessToHE